Abstract:
Human perceptions about climate change constitute knowledge built on lived experiences and such
information is useful for guiding effective local-level adaptation strategies. Yet, such perceptions are rarely
included in climate change adaptation plans, nor are such perceptions evaluated alongside climate-related
data. People’s perceptions about climate change need to be considered, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa,
where the impacts of climate change are more pronounced. In this study, we compared Kenyan farmers’ and
pastoralists’ perceptions of change in rainfall patterns (amount and variability) to observed rainfall (Climate
Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station rainfall data). We also compared both farmers’ and
pastoralists’ perceptions of crop and pasture productivity to remote-sensed estimates of productivity. Overall,
crop farmers and pastoralists perceived a decrease in rainfall amount and increase in variability alongside
perceived decreases in crop yields and pasture abundance. Perceptions were heterogeneous across space,
however, and not consistent with rainfall or productivity observations. Using ordination, we further
identified perception archetypes that differed by household socioeconomic characteristics and geographic
setting, whereby pastoralists perceived greater changes in both rainfall amount, variability, and productivity
than other land users. These results revealed heterogeneous patterns that situate household-level perceptions
within landscapes, demonstrating the need for multiscalar management of social-ecological systems. We
conclude that there are important differences in perceived patterns of climate impacts that are not captured
by commonly used Earth observation products. To ensure adaptation strategies address the lived experiences
of communities, better integration of perceived climate change impacts into climate change adaptation
planning might be needed
